Posted: 2006-09-20 23:57 Zuma off the hook?  Presenter: Lindsay Williams Guest(s): Booysen, Glynos Corruption charges against former SA deputy president Jacob Zuma are thrown out. Does this give Jacob Zuma a chance at the presidency? Classic Business Day gets political analyst Professor Susan Booysen on the line from Wits University, and George Glynos is on the line from Econometrix Treasury Management LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Pietermaritzburg High Court Judge Herbert Msimang threw the Zuma case out - chastising prosecutors for failing to prepare properly. Susan, what did you make of this development? SUSAN BOOYSEN: Certainly politically speaking it opens the track for Jacob Zuma to pursue his aspirations both to be president of the ANC and possibly of the country - he certainly has those aspirations, but there are significant enough obstacles ahead. He is not quite on the straight yet. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: What’s the first obstacle of significance? SUSAN BOOYSEN: He is now in a situation where he really has to clarify his policies. It’s been very easy to mobilise left-leaning elements in the ANC alliance such as Cosatu - challenging the government on deficits in the first twelve years of government. It’s been widely assumed that he is going to be a credible champion for this – but with the court case at least for now out of the way, I think there’s going to much more pressure on him to show exactly which policies he stands for, and whether there’s a significant difference between his policies and that of President Thabo Mbeki and the rest of the senior ANC and government leadership. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: So the hard work for Zuma and his supporters really begins now? SUSAN BOOYSEN: Indeed. His credibility will be tested all the way. It’s definitely not going to be plain sailing. Even if his followers are left-leaning there could be a gap between him and his followers. He doesn’t really have a recent clear-cut record of policy statements that differs significantly from the ANC and the government, and he also doesn’t have a convincing history of left-leaning sentiment. Maybe he develops that - maybe his followers will push him in that direction, but that really remains to be seen. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Has he used his leaning towards the left and his alliance with the SACP and Cosatu to garner popular support - and when it comes to the crunch, when it comes to the presidential struggle if you like - he may shift away from that? Could the leopard change it’s spots? SUSAN BOOYSEN: I certainly think his spots are not clearly defined. There are many policy realities that flow into the ocean between popular and populist candidacy - and stepping into that position. It’s a completely different story to be in government in a very senior position and make policy changes. Now there are people who say maybe Zuma could be a good president - because he might be inclined to listen to advice more than Thabo Mbeki. But the danger in a presidency like that might be that the person is completely open to advice. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: The danger in the meantime - just reading a comment from a Reuters story where a coffin topped with a picture of President Thabo Mbeki who’s supposed to be using the corruption case a ploy to ruin Zuma’s political career - is internal ANC turmoil and international trepidation. Do you think we’re going to get past that in the next few months? SUSAN BOOYSEN: The turmoil has been for a while, and it will certainly continue if not become exacerbated. I think international investors and risk agencies have a very good solid perspective - we’ve seen statements saying the fundamentals are in place, and a sound economic policy is well entrenched in the civil service and the power base of the ANC. I think the realisation there is that policy is not going to be turned around, if at all - therefore the left sentiments and populist anti-Mbeki sentiments we’re seeing in the carrying of the coffin goes with the moment. I certainly don’t see the possibility of that being carried right through into government in the immediate future. Perhaps one can sympathise with the sentiment that there should perhaps be more left-leaning policy in South Africa - but this is not the way that it comes about. Cosatu will have to exercise much more and even systemic pressure if Zuma is going to be their candidate. To contest the policy positions of the alliance is going to take systematic and hard work in the next year or so - Zuma is no shortcut. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: George, there wasn’t much of a reaction - a little bit of weakness in the rand, but overall the market took this in its stride… GEORGE GLYNOS: It did take it in its stride. As you pointed out, the major reaction was on the currency - initially it lost close on 10 cents on that announcement. I think that gives you some insight into the manor the investors both locally and internationally took the news - not particularly good news. Unfortunately perhaps the worst part about this whole situation is that we still don’t really have clarity on this issue. As I understand it - and I’m not a legal expert - charges could still be brought against Zuma once the government has its ducks in a row. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: The markets don’t like uncertainty - they don’t like turmoil. If the state presents its case in a more organised fashion to the satisfaction of the judge Herbert Msimang - he did say that basically it was poor preparation - if it does drag on again that’s uncertainty that puts us in the international spotlight in an unfavourable light… GEORGE GLYNOS: Exactly right. That unfavourable light unfortunately brings local governance at the highest levels of local government into the spotlight - and Africa as a continent doesn’t have a fantastic track record on that front. Unfortunately we get painted with the same brush sometimes - but over and above that I think it is just a continuation of this shadow that’s been hanging over the political landscape of this country for quite some time, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to go away any time soon. As the previous speaker correctly mentioned there is uncertainty as to exactly what the fundamentals are that Jacob Zuma would pursue as president - in other words what policies would he implemented. At this stage of the game it looks as if he has some leftist leanings - which goes a little bit against all the policies which he has in fat been part of implementing in the first place. So there’s a lot of uncertainty - and at this stage of the game it hasn’t been particularly well received. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi said the overwhelming majority of the working class - the poor and the marginalised - should be very happy today. So we get an idea of where they are directing Zuma’s policies for the future. Colen Garrow of Brait said: “Factions are emerging within the ANC, and this is going to weigh on the market quite heavily.” Infighting within the ruling party - that’s not good for the markets? GEORGE GLYNOS: It’s not good for the markets. Again that brings the role of the presidency back into focus - unfortunately President Mbeki up until now has not been seen as somebody who can sometimes adopt a really hard stance on particular issues that the market wants clarified, for example Zimbabwe. This has dragged on far too long - we would like to see some sort of commitment either on the part of government or on the part of Jacob Zuma just to clarify exactly what it is that the impact of a Zuma presidency would have in terms of economic policy going forward. LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Don’t worry too much - the short-term reaction of the market saw the bond market rally five basis points, the stock market rallied by about 0.6% and more in the case of certain other indices, and the rand was only 0.4% weaker. ar/tr/met Comments Related to this transcript: Comment on this transcript... Name : Email : Comments :